The Greatwood Hurdle run in November has been a big pointer to Saturday's International Hurdle at Cheltenham (due off at 3.05pm).
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Since 2002, five winners of the Greatwood have followed up in this race, including Menorah last year and the six-year-old is back to defend his crown after connections decided to put a novice chase campaign on hold. It might have been a different matter had he not unseated Richard Johnson two out with the race at his mercy at Exeter last month and he is still fourth favourite with most firms for the Arkle Chase.
However, the novice chasing division looks red hot this season and you can't blame connections for switching him back to hurdles, especially when there is such a valuable prize on offer here. If he were to be successful, he would almost certainly stay over the smaller obstacles with his objective being another crack at the Champion Hurdle in March. He was fifth in the race last season when sent off at 4/1 so the current 25/1 with Totesport would tumble if he won on Saturday, and he's a top-priced 7/2 with Ladbrokes to do just that.
However, I'm keen to take him on with the Paul Nicholls-trained BRAMPOUR (9/2 Paddy Power), who has landed both his starts this season in the style of a rapidly improving hurdler after a summer breathing operation. His latest success came in the aforementioned Greatwood Hurdle, which he won by two and a half lengths from Olofi off a handicap mark of 149, which is higher than Rigmarole (also trained by Nicholls), Detroit City and Khyber Kim won their Greatwoods off.
He will again be partnered by the trainer's teenage nephew Harry Derham, who has impressed many with his riding this season, although he won't be able to claim his 7lb due to this race being a non-handicap. Still, he's won round here, which counts for a lot, and it's worth noting that nine of the last 12 winners had won over course and distance.
That can't be said of the current favourite Grandouet (3/1 Betfred), who faded after the last when finishing third in the Triumph Hurdle here back in March and was also well beaten here at the previous November meeting. Cheltenham is not every horse's cup of tea and he wouldn't be the first horse to not cope with the Cheltenham hill, although he's looked a much stronger horse this season and would surely have beaten Celestial Halo in Wincanton's Elite Hurdle two starts back had he not fallen at the last. He showed no ill effects for that when barely coming off the bridle to beat five inferior rivals at Haydock last time out and has reportedly been working well since, but I still have my doubts and time may tell that he is better suited to flatter tracks like Aintree.
A bigger danger would be Overturn (4/1 Stan James), if given the green light to run on Friday. He must go down as the best dual purpose horse in the country as in addition to his wins in the Northumberland Plate and Chester Cup on the flat, he has won six times over hurdles taking some notable scalps in the process, including that of reigning champion hurdler Binocular at Newcastle last time out. With the ground still in his favour, he should make a bold bid from the front, as his style, but he could prove vulnerable to the superior pace of Grandouet and Brampour, with the latter much preferred.
